Is the job market actually good for switching right now?
Not particularly. The market is quiet on both ends, which changes the whole calculation.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August 2026, released September 29, 2026, showed job openings little changed at about 7.1 million, quits unchanged at roughly 3.1 million (a quits rate of 1.9%), and layoffs essentially flat at 1.6 million. That combination describes a low-hire, low-quit labor market. Fewer people are being let go, but fewer are voluntarily leaving too, and employers are not opening new roles at a pace that rewards job hunters.
When quits sit that low, it tells you something about worker confidence. Economists reading the same data, as reported by CNBC on August 22, 2025 citing Atlanta Fed figures and Indeed economist Allison Shrivastava, describe this as a frozen market: a depressed quits rate signals that workers do not feel sure they can do better elsewhere, and those who are forced to change jobs often end up accepting lower pay. In other words, the safety net that made job-hopping feel low-risk has thinned.
Do you still earn more by switching jobs?
The traditional pay premium for changing employers has narrowed sharply, so switching is no longer the reliable raise it once was.
For years the reliable advice was that the fastest way to a bigger paycheck was out the door. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Wage Growth Tracker for August 2026 tells a different story. Wage growth for job stayers reached 3.6% in August, roughly matching switchers and closing much of the gap that defined the Great Resignation. Switchers did move up, to 5.0% from 4.4% on a three-month moving average, so a well-chosen move can still pay. But the CNBC analysis noted that stayers' wage growth eclipsed switchers' for the first sustained stretch since the Great Recession era. The overall tracker sat at 4.1%.
What this means in practice: the switcher premium that once justified the disruption, the loss of tenure, and the gamble on a new manager and culture has gotten thinner. You can still find an employer willing to pay up for a specific, hard-to-hire skill. What you cannot count on anymore is that any move, by default, beats staying put.
Should you ask for a raise where you are first?
Yes, in most cases start there. You have more leverage, more information, and far less risk with your current employer than with a stranger.
Think about what you already hold. Your manager knows your track record, your relationships reduce ramp-up cost, and replacing you carries real expense and delay in a low-hire market. Those are the ingredients of a strong negotiation, and they are the ones you forfeit the moment you become an outside candidate competing on price alone.
Build your case before you walk in. Document the specific outcomes you have delivered over the past year, ideally in terms your organization already values, such as revenue influenced, costs reduced, projects shipped, or risks avoided. Bring evidence of scope that has grown since your pay was last set, because a raise conversation is really an argument that your current compensation lags your current contribution. Then research where similar roles pay in your market so your number is anchored to something defensible, not to your frustration.
Ask for a specific figure and a specific timeline, and separate the raise question from the promotion question if a title change is what you actually want. Managers rarely have unlimited discretion, so give yours a path: what would need to be true for this to happen this cycle, and if not now, what is the concrete plan to get there in the next two quarters. That converts a yes-or-no moment into an ongoing commitment you can hold them to.
When does quitting for a new job still make sense?
Leaving is the right call when the problem is structural rather than a number, or when an outside offer genuinely exceeds what your employer can match.
There are situations no raise fixes. If your role has no room to grow, if you have lost trust in leadership, if the work itself no longer fits where you want your career to go, then more money simply delays a decision you have already made. In those cases a move is about fit and trajectory, not the switcher premium.
The frozen market changes how you should move, not whether you can. Because quits are low and forced changers often accept less, avoid quitting into uncertainty. Line up the next role before you resign, and treat any external offer as information you can bring back to your current employer if you would genuinely prefer to stay. Be honest with yourself about that, though; using an offer purely as leverage can backfire if you have no intention of leaving. When you do evaluate an outside offer, weigh the full package against what staying and negotiating could realistically produce, not against your current salary in isolation. The gap that once made switching an easy win has shrunk, so the new offer needs to clear a higher bar to justify the risk.
How to decide between the two
The practical sequence is straightforward. First, ask where you are, with evidence and a specific number, because that is your lowest-risk path to higher pay in this environment. Second, run a genuine job search only if the internal answer is no, if the ceiling is real, or if fit has broken down. Third, let any external offer inform your final choice rather than dictate it. In a market where stayers and switchers now earn roughly the same growth, the deciding factor is less about squeezing the last percentage point and more about where you can build the career you actually want.